Date of Graduation

Fall 2008

Degree

Master of Science in Defense and Strategic Studies

Department

Defense and Strategic Studies

Committee Chair

Bradley Thayer

Keywords

demography, identity, interests, defense environment, strategy

Subject Categories

Defense and Security Studies

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to collect and examine various worldwide demographic trends and measure their effect on state identity and interests. This study was undertaken since many, if not all, of the United States' decisions are based on the assumption that the interests and behavior of both allies and adversaries remain constant. After examining the components of identity formulation, it was determined that state identity is not a fixed object and in fact is in a constant state of flux. In fact, a number of key demographic trends, including but not limited to divergent intrastate identity group fertility rates, divergent identity group aging trends, and trans-cultural migration are catalysts in reshaping a state's identity. It is argued that if these trends continue, a state may potentially have a severe shift in interests, behavior, and policies. Therefore, the transformation of an ally or adversary's identity would have serious security implications. Considering the consequences of these trends as well as their ability to provide a more clairvoyant strategic planning process; the United States should utilize demography as a way to better predict the future defense and security environment.

Copyright

© Nicholas A. Stephanadis

Campus Only

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