Effects of amount of information on predictions of uncertain quantities
The experiment examined the relationship between the degree of uncertainty associated with predictions of a quantity and the amount of information available about the quantity. Subjects were asked either to give point estimates for a homogeneous set of quantities or to assess 0.05 and 0.95 fractiles. As in previous studies, the fractiles tended to be too close, indicating overconfidence. The level of overconfidence decreased, however, as the amount of information increased. The reduction in overconfidence occurred because, when more information was available, the fractile interval was wider while the accuracy of the predictions improved. Subjects gave more extreme estimates when less information was available and exhibited more certainty about their predictions. The results are contrasted with previous studies of the effects of information on confidence judgments. © 1986.
Peterson, Dane K., and Gordon F. Pitz. "Effects of amount of information on predictions of uncertain quantities." Acta psychologica 61, no. 3 (1986): 229-241.