Date of Graduation

Summer 2026

Degree

Master of Science in Geography & Geology

Department

School of Earth, Environment & Sustainability

Committee Chair

Xin Miao

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly transforming the cryosphere, hydrology, and human landscape of Gilgit-Baltistan, a highly climate-sensitive mountain region in northern Pakistan. This thesis investigates these transformations through satellite-based land use/land cover (LULC) change detection in four representative tehsils of Gilgit-Baltistan—Ali Abad, Gilgit, Nagar, and Sikander Abad—selected to span a gradient of human pressure and cryospheric exposure within the region. Using summer, cloud-free (< 10%) imagery from USGS Landsat 7 (2000) and Landsat 8 (2025), it conducts a multi-temporal comparison of environmental and socio-spatial change. After atmospheric correction and band compositing, the imagery is classified in ArcGIS Pro into six classes—Water, Barren land, Vegetation, Snow, Glacier, and Built-up—using a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier, with Maximum Likelihood Classification and Random Forest also tested but found less suitable for the final workflow. The analysis detects a pronounced reduction in mapped glacier-class area alongside a comparatively stable snow class, together with built-up expansion, while examining how temperature, precipitation, tourism, and population dynamics relate to observed LULC transitions. The results reveal a pattern of cryospheric decline and urban growth, with implications for water availability, ecological stability, hazard exposure, and settlement pressure. By integrating geospatial change detection with climatic and socio-economic interpretation, the thesis moves beyond mapping to explain interacting environmental and human drivers of landscape transformation and provides a reproducible remote-sensing baseline for monitoring land-surface change in heterogeneous mountainous terrain. It recommends integrated water-resource management, climate-resilient land-use planning, watershed and glacier monitoring, and sustainable tourism governance, supporting evidence-based decision-making by the Government of Gilgit-Baltistan and organizations working on climate adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and sustainable regional development.

Keywords

climate change, classification, remote sensing, land use, sustainable development

Subject Categories

Environmental Studies | Geographic Information Sciences | Physical and Environmental Geography | Remote Sensing

Copyright

© Ali Muhammad

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