Order imbalance and stock returns: Evidence from China

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stock exchange, market efficiency, China


We investigate the relation between daily order imbalance and return in the Chinese stock markets of Shenzhen and Shanghai. Prior studies have found that daily order imbalance is predictive of subsequent returns. On the two Chinese exchanges we find the autocorrelation in order imbalances is similar to that of the New York Stock Exchange as reported by Chordia and Subrahmanyam [Chordia, T., & Subrahmanyam, A. (2004). Order imbalance and individual stock returns: Theory and evidence. Journal of Financial Economics, 72, 485–518]. We also find a strong contemporaneous relation between daily order imbalances and returns. However, we do not find evidence that order imbalances predict subsequent returns. We attribute the difference in predicative power to differences in trading mechanisms on the two exchanges and to differences in the share turnover rates.

Recommended Citation

Shenoy, Catherine, and Ying Jenny Zhang. "Order imbalance and stock returns: Evidence from China." The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 47, no. 5 (2007): 637-650.

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Finance and General Business