Title
The choice between multiplicative and additive production uncertainty
Abstract
When modeling output uncertainty, the multiplicative specification is consistently chosen over the additive form, despite the latter being arguably intuitively more obvious. The rationale for this seems to be that when production risk is the only source of uncertainty, additive uncertainty does not reduce output below the certainty level, while multiplicative uncertainty does. We show that, in the absence of hedging, this result is drastically modified when there is simultaneous price and output uncertainty. In this situation the theoretical implications of the two specifications are sufficiently similar to preclude any a priori choice between the two. Thus the choice between the additive and multiplicative formulations may be dictated by how each performs in empirical analyses.
Department(s)
Economics
Document Type
Article
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2009.04.010
Keywords
multiplicative output uncertainty, additive output uncertainty, price uncertainty
Publication Date
2009
Recommended Citation
Alghalith, Moawia, and Ardeshir Dalal. "The choice between multiplicative and additive production uncertainty." Economic Modelling 26, no. 5 (2009): 1129-1133.
Journal Title
Economic Modelling
