The fortunes of poor neighborhoods

Abstract

The authors examine the longitudinal fortunes of the poorest fifth of U.S. metropolitan neighborhoods, defined as those with 20% or higher poverty rates in 1980. They employ logistic regression to identify the factors correlated with 1980-1990 increases and decreases in poverty rates across these poor neighborhoods and examine whether factors vary by predominant racial/ethnic composition. Regional economic cycles and population growth performance are the dominant determinants of neighborhood poverty change, although the neighborhood's initial poverty rate also influences it. Neighborhoods with higher poverty rates in 1980 evince less stability. Extremely poor neighborhoods are roughly as likely to experience an increase in poverty of 5 or more percentage points as a comparable decrease in poverty. The authors conclude that continued poverty is not the only or even most likely fate of poor neighborhoods; their fortunes depend on both local and regional context.

Document Type

Article

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1177/1078087403254493

Keywords

Population growth performance, Poverty rate, Racial/ethnic groups, Regional economic cycle, Relative income change

Publication Date

11-1-2003

Journal Title

Urban Affairs Review

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