Examining county-level factors of Democratic versus Republican shifts between 2016 and 2020 presidential elections in the U.S.

Abstract

This study examines factors influencing county-level Democratic vs. Republican shifting rates and their spatial patterns between the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections. We developed a flipping-potential measure, a standardized metric for comparing county susceptibility to change (not prediction), based on projected party switching timeframes and observed shifting rates. Shifting-rate analysis identified notable Democratic shifts in Colorado and the northeastern U.S., and significant Republican shifts along the Texas-Mexico border and in Arkansas. Flipping-potential analysis revealed Democratic counties with comparatively higher projected potential to flip red along the Texas-Mexico and Arkansas-Mississippi borders, and Republican counties with higher potential to flip blue in Colorado, Washington, and New York. Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) analysis determined which variable changes (2016–2020) most influenced these shifts. Results indicated that changes in third-party vote percentages and population density were most influential. Decreases in third-party votes largely benefited Democrats, while increased voter turnout favored Democrats in many counties.

Department(s)

School of Earth, Environment and Sustainability

Document Type

Article

DOI

10.1080/23754931.2025.2545490

Keywords

Democratic, MGWR, political shift, Presidential election, Republican

Publication Date

1-1-2025

Journal Title

Papers in Applied Geography

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