Date of Graduation
Spring 2025
Degree
Master of Science in Defense and Strategic Studies
Department
School of Defense & Strategic Studies
Committee Chair
John Rose
Abstract
Today's deterrence is dramatically different from that during the Cold War. This thesis examines how changes in global geopolitics altered deterrent frameworks and how those changes threaten strategic stability. Traditional nuclear deterrence is built on clear adversaries, established escalation protocols, and predictable outcomes that are increasingly obsolete when facing modern realities. Adversaries employ hybrid strategies below the traditional thresholds of nuclear deterrence while integrating nuclear capabilities into these hybrid tactics, driving a distinct disadvantage for traditional deterrence frameworks. Russia uses nuclear signaling with gray zone operations, China combines multidomain operations with nuclear deterrence to employ a full spectrum of capabilities, North Korea continues nuclear brinksmanship, while Iran uses proxy networks and an expanding missile arsenal. These nations increasingly coordinate for strategic advantage against the U.S. and allies while offering an alternative geopolitical framework. The role of emerging technologies is destabilizing the deterrence landscape. Hypersonic weapons compress decision and detection windows while threatening second strike capabilities. Cyber operations blur the lines of attribution and response. Artificial intelligence offers opportunities, perils, and vulnerabilities for nuclear deterrence, while space is increasingly a contested domain that all competitors rely on. As these challenges undermine U.S. extended deterrent commitments, allies question U.S. reliability, potentially creating alliance fractures and adversary exploitation. Effective deterrence in the 21st century requires integrating multiple approaches across domains and understanding strategic culture while strengthening deterrence through careful upgrades to maintain stability in a contested global landscape.
Keywords
deterrence theory, strategic stability, multipolar competition, hybrid warfare, emerging technologies, extended deterrence, strategic culture, adversarial coordination, cross-domain deterrence
Subject Categories
Defense and Security Studies | International Relations
Copyright
© Daniel H. Wang
Recommended Citation
Wang, Daniel H., "Death of a Doctrine: The End of Classical Deterrence in a Complex Multipolar World" (2025). Graduate Theses/Dissertations. 4064.
https://bearworks.missouristate.edu/theses/4064
