Date of Graduation

Summer 2025

Degree

Master of Science in Defense and Strategic Studies

Department

School of Defense & Strategic Studies

Committee Chair

John Rose

Abstract

This thesis examines whether cyber warfare now poses a more immediate threat to U.S. national security than weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Cyber operations have become a dominant instrument of contemporary conflict, with malicious actors operating in a persistent “grey zone” that blurs traditional boundaries between war and peace. These operations target military and civilian entities, both directly and often as collateral damage due to the uncontrollable nature of cyber threats. WMDs, despite their catastrophic destructive potential, remain largely constrained by established deterrence frameworks.

The evolving nature of cyber warfare warrants comparison to WMD effects and impact, as cyber capabilities may achieve comparable destructive outcomes while also potentially amplifying or enabling WMD threats. Through comparative analysis across dimensions of destructive capacity, attribution challenges, legal constraints, accessibility, and strategic impact, this study demonstrates that cyber threats present a pressing immediate danger to U.S. national security and its allies.

This research paper analyzes major cyber incidents, including Stuxnet, the OPM breach, U.S. election interference, and critical infrastructure attacks, to reveal how adversaries exploit digital anonymity and attribution challenges to achieve strategic objectives below the threshold of armed conflict. Cyber operations permit continuous low-level aggression through espionage, sabotage, and information warfare, allowing malicious actors to achieve significant strategic impact.

This analysis reveals the emergence of fifth-generation warfare (5GW) and cognitive warfare as defining paradigms of future conflict. They represent an evolution from the current cyber threat landscape where information and human cognition become primary targets rather than physical destruction.

The study concludes that cyber warfare poses a more active and immediate threat to U.S. national security through its frequency, sophistication, and ability to cause widespread disruption across critical infrastructure, information environments, and cognitive domains.

Keywords

cyber warfare, influence operations, cognitive warfare, fifth generation warfare, weapons of mass destruction

Subject Categories

Cybersecurity | Defense and Security Studies | Public Policy | Terrorism Studies

Copyright

© Victor A. Mercado

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