Date of Graduation

Summer 2025

Degree

Master of Science in Geography & Geology

Department

School of Earth, Environment & Sustainability

Committee Chair

Asif Ishtiaque

Abstract

This study examines livelihood adaptation strategies and the dynamics of marginalization in decision-making within communities vulnerable to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in Gilgit-Baltistan, Northern Pakistan. Grounded in a vulnerability framework encompassing exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, it addresses two objectives: identifying household and community-level adaptation strategies to GLOF risks and analyzing structural drivers of marginalization in adaptation decision-making. A mixed-methods design was used, combining a systematic review of GLOF measures in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region with a household survey of 150 respondents in Hassanabad and Hoper valleys. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) assessed how socio-demographic, economic, institutional, and motivational factors influence adaptation actions—such as floodwalls, riverbank plantations, migration, and channel excavation—and participation levels. Results show that adaptation strategies are unevenly distributed, shaped by education, disaster experience, social networks, and institutional trust. Participation remains limited and often tokenistic, particularly among marginalized groups. The study calls for inclusive, power-aware frameworks that foster both structural resilience and equitable participation. Policy recommendations include integrating local knowledge, strengthening community governance, and customizing adaptation systems to high-mountain socio-ecological contexts.

Keywords

Glacial lake outburst floods, climate adaptation, vulnerability, marginalized communities, Hindu Kush Himalaya, participatory governance, South Asia, Pakistan

Subject Categories

Development Studies | Environmental Studies | Human Geography

Copyright

© Sobia Shah

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