Date of Graduation

Spring 2026

Degree

Master of Science in Defense and Strategic Studies

Department

School of Defense & Strategic Studies

Committee Chair

James Anderson

Abstract

While the defense of Taiwan from a potential invasion by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has long been a topic of debate and scrutiny in U.S. strategic thinking, the role of its southern neighbor, the Philippines, has received far less attention. This thesis argues that northern Luzon would constitute key terrain in a cross-strait conflict and may become an early target of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) operations. Its proximity to Taiwan and position along the Luzon Strait, particularly the Bashi Channel, places it at the center of efforts to control access to the hypothetical battlespace. Drawing on PLA and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) doctrine, regional security developments, and the evolving U.S.-Philippine alliance, this study finds that in an invasion of Taiwan, Beijing may be incentivized to conduct limited aerial strikes and possibly amphibious landings on northern Luzon. Such actions would aim to neutralize U.S. forward-deployed forces, disrupt reinforcements, and knock the Philippines out of action. This would secure the PLA’s southern flank during an invasion of Taiwan. Although U.S.-Philippine military cooperation has expanded in recent years through the deployment of American long-range fires and larger, more complex joint exercises, the current force posture remains insufficient to deter or defeat a determined Chinese effort. An armed attack on Philippine territory or its citizens would trigger U.S. obligations under Article IV of the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT), compelling the United States to come to the Philippines’ aid. These findings highlight the need to better integrate the Philippines into Taiwan contingency planning, strengthen forward-deployed capabilities, and reinforce alliance coordination.

Keywords

United States, Philippines, China, Taiwan, deterrence, threats

Subject Categories

Defense and Security Studies | International Relations | Peace and Conflict Studies | Policy Design, Analysis, and Evaluation

Copyright

© Carson Keller

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